Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction: Maye's League-Leading Four-Week Run Meets Miami's 29th-Ranked Defense at Hard Rock

The numbers file for this afternoon's AFC East game at Hard Rock Stadium is lopsided, and it starts with the visiting quarterback. Drake Maye leads the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the past four weeks, according to Covers' Week 8 prediction file, updated at 1:26 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, and New England's offense ranks second in DVOA while averaging 31 points per game during the surge. Covers' top pick for the game is New England to cover a 6.5-point spread, a pick the file says is playable up to minus-8.

Miami's side of the matchup is the mirror image: the Dolphins check in 28th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA for the season, per the same file, and one matchup stands out in the passing game. Miami has allowed a league-high 93.5 percent catch rate to tight ends across its past three games, while New England's Hunter Henry has recorded 40 or more receiving yards in four straight games, catching 19 of 21 targets in that stretch. On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson has handled 39.1 percent of the Patriots' red-zone rushes and scored in three of the past four games, against a Miami defense that has surrendered eight touchdowns to opposing running backs through six games.

The context around the numbers: New England arrives at 4-3 with extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 7, while Miami is 1-5 and coming off its first win of the season, 28-25 over the New York Jets. The listed total for the game is 42.5 points. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. Eastern at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, on regional CBS coverage - and the prediction file, like every prediction, is an estimate of the matchup, not the result. The result files after the final whistle.