Election Eve in the Governor's Race: Every Model Favors Donalds — They Just Disagree About How Much
A forecast model puts Byron Donalds at a 76.8 percent chance with an expected margin of 3.6 points; a prediction market prices him at 61 percent, down from 92 a year ago; and the polls underneath both say the same narrower thing — a lead of about four to five points, with one day left.
Florida chooses a governor tomorrow, and on the final day the number-makers agree on the direction and argue about the distance. FutureBallot's forecast, run on the morning of November 2, gives Republican Byron Donalds a 76.8 percent modeled chance of beating Democrat David Jolly, with an expected margin of 3.6 points; its separate 'if ballots were cast today' run is firmer still, at 81 to 19. Underneath the model sit the polls themselves: a simple average of 19 polls ending between October 1 and October 31 puts Donalds ahead by 4.4 points, with the newest survey, from ActiVote, ending October 31.
The prediction market tells a tighter story with the same leader. Kalshi's Florida governor market on November 2 prices Donalds at 61 percent and Jolly at 39 — a number that has fallen a long way from the 92 percent Republican price recorded on October 17, 2025. Its displayed polling average reads Donalds 48.1 percent, Jolly 43.4, a five-point gap, and its margin forecast sits near Republican +2.3. Kalshi's own page is careful about the distinction this desk will repeat: a market price is not a vote share, and a modeled chance is not a result. What all three instruments share is the underlying polling — a single-digit Donalds lead that has narrowed the closer the calendar gets to Tuesday.
The closing arguments underneath the numbers are the ones Miami voters have heard for weeks, as MIA Media Group summarized them Monday: Donalds emphasizing conservative economic policies, reduced regulation, school choice and opposition to government-funded diversity, equity and inclusion programs; Jolly running on affordability, public education, economic opportunity and restoring protections against discrimination. Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994, and Donalds would be the state's first Black governor. Tomorrow, the models stop. The assigned precincts decide.
