Election Day Is the Verdict: Voters Decide Whether Trump's Second Term Keeps Its Congress
Polls and nonpartisan analysts favor Democrats to take the House while the Senate stays uncertain, Reuters reported Tuesday morning — with nearly ten Senate races, most of them in Republican strongholds, deciding how the president's last two years will run.
American voters deliver their verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump's second term on Tuesday, in midterm elections that polls and nonpartisan analysts say favor Democrats to wrest the House of Representatives from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain, Reuters reported in its Election Day file. The battle for the Senate is unfolding across nearly ten closely contested statewide races, most of them in Republican strongholds, and history is against the president's party: it has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two.
There is little doubt, Reuters wrote, that this year's election is all about Trump, the central figure in American politics for most of the last decade — a framing the president himself has encouraged by telling supporters repeatedly to "pretend I'm on the ballot." His approval rating is hovering near his all-time lows, dragged down by deep voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices, and opinion polls show voters most concerned about affordability. Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical and extreme; "The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history," Trump said on Monday during a speech in Washington. The president sought to energize his base with more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, the vast majority in states he easily won in 2024 — a schedule Reuters read as Republicans playing defense.
The arithmetic is tight on both sides. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, and Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber — while defending every seat they now hold. In Michigan, the Senate contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers received a fresh jolt on Sunday, when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the primary, endorsed Rogers in a surprise reversal. Alaska's race carries its own turmoil, including a Justice Department criminal probe into allegations around a recruited namesake candidate, which the Democratic candidate has denied, and in Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose campaign has benefited from a nine-figure investment by Elon Musk. Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton held a narrow polling lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a state Trump carried by more than 16 points, and in Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson.
The House fight, by Reuters' analysis of the leading forecasters, turns on 47 races widely seen as competitive: if the other contests proceed as predicted, Democrats would need to win only 13 of those races to secure a majority. A Democratic House or Senate could launch investigations and demand concessions on legislation, and a Democratic Senate could block Trump appointments, including any Supreme Court nomination. Three dozen governors' races and thousands of state-level contests are also decided Tuesday. For Florida voters, the national verdict arrives on the same ballot as their own: polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at assigned precincts, and Miami-Dade's first results post at about 7:15 p.m.
